The NBA bubble experiment has been a complete and utter success. Even in just the seeding games fans have been rewarded with high quality basketball across the board. Who would’ve thought when you take out the poverty franchises like the Knicks, Bulls, Hawks, Pistons, Timberwolves, and others the overall product on the court would increase? With the playoff bracket finally set, and games to begin tomorrow (8/17), it is time for me to lock in my picks and predictions for this season’s NBA playoffs.
So there you have it, Nick Nurse and the most complete team in the league go back to back. I am doubling down on my sleeper pick from the beginning. It pains me not to pick Lebron and the Lakers, but simply put, they are not the best team. I would love nothing more than for him to prove me wrong, though.
Even though I have provided the answer key for the entire playoffs, I will be modest and only dive into my picks for the first round.
The East
The Eastern Conference has some incredibly interesting storylines. The Superman of the conference may have been exposed to some Kryptonite, the two more complete teams have seemingly closed the gap, and the rest is yet to present themselves as a true contender, and not just a pretender.
I forecast the first round to be pretty chalk. Let’s take a look.
1. Milwaukee vs 8. Orlando
*Result: Bucks in 4
The Bucks have looked sluggish thus far in the bubble and they sport a 3-5 record to show for it. The thing is, the Magic are not equipped to even attempt at defending Giannis. Jonathan Isaac is a bigger loss than most people think, and the lack of length on the perimeter will be the reason they can’t even make it a gentleman’s sweep.
4. Indiana vs 5. Miami
*Result: Heat in 6
Miami leads the season series three games to one with the lone loss being the seeding games finale, where Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder did not play. I think Indiana makes it a competitive series. They match up well to Miami and have an answer for most of their weapons. The problem is, the Pacers have been riding and dying by bubble break out star TJ Warren. There is no denying Warren is on an absolute tear, and while I hate to rain on the parade, I do not see it continuing. The Heat’s depth reigns supreme this series, and they advance without needing seven games.
3. Boston vs 6. Philadelphia
*Result: Celtics in 5
Joel Embiid said it himself, Philly and Boston do not have a rivalry because Philly hasn’t beaten them. Sixers fans need to listen to their franchise player, because he is exactly right. While there is not a huge drop off in roster talent, Boston has the superior coach. Not to mention, Ben Simmons is most likely done for the rest of the postseason. Joel Embiid posts godly numbers this series, but in the end the Celtics move on with relative ease.
2. Toronto vs 7. Brooklyn
*Result: Raptors in 5
I bought in on the Toronto Raptors before everyone else, and I refuse to sell it now. The Raptors are, in my opinion, the most complete team in the bubble. They are the perfect balance of depth, coaching, experience, and chemistry. I love what Nick Nurse has built up north this season, and I can’t wait to see what they do in the later rounds. Caris Levert steals a game from them, leading to a gentleman’s sweep for Canada’s team.
The West
The Western Conference is dynamic from top to bottom. The team who got to the conference final last year (who even returns the same core) is now the eight seed, for reference. This side of the bracket is truly unpredictable and can go in so many different directions. Can Mike D’Antoni prove his madness can lead to success? Does Denver’s young core finally flourish? How far can Dame Time take an atrocious defense? And finally, does Lebron James get ring number four?
With all these enticing storylines, I’ll do my best to predict how the West shakes out.
1. Los Angeles vs 8. Portland
*Result: Lakers in 6
This is the series everyone is calling an upset waiting to happen. I would love to see Damian Lillard continue his heroics alongside CJ and Nurkic. However, I have watched too much playoff basketball over the years to bet against Lebron James. With playoff mode activated, Lebron is not letting this legacy-building opportunity slip away. I do not love the Lakers’ roster construction, but two top five players will be enough to get by the defenseless Blazers in six games.
4. Houston vs 5. Oklahoma City
*Result: Thunder in 7
This series is my most anticipated one of the entire first round. Chris Paul is nearing the end, and nothing would tie up his career better than taking down the team that abandoned him. The X-Factor of the series is center Steven Adams. If he can prove his worth cleaning up the boards and dominating the paint, the Thunder win the series. If Adams is a liability against Houston’s small-ball lineup, then Houston might have too much firepower. Time will tell, and basketball junkies are excited for the small-ball experiment to be put to the test.
3. Denver vs 6. Utah
*Result: Nuggets in 5
The Nuggets have struggled mightily on defense. I do not know what to attribute this to, but I have a feeling it might just be a factor of the long lay-off. They were sixth in defensive rating all season so it should come back given time. With the defense tightened up, Denver has no issues dealing with a depleted Utah team.
2. Los Angeles vs 7. Dallas
*Result: Clippers in 5
No team in the league has the wing defenders necessary to stop both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The issue is, Dallas doesn’t have the players to even limit or contain them. Dallas is among the worst defensive teams in the bubble and there is no question the Clippers’ depth will capitalize on it. I love Luka but when you can’t get stops, you can’t win. The Clippers take this series without much of a fight.