The 2020 Draft class is one of the weakest since 2013 when Anthony Bennett went #1 overall to Cleveland. While there probably is no Williamson, Doncic, or Tatum in this class, it’d be incorrect to say there isn’t any talent. There are plenty of middle round guys who can be key contributors to their respective teams. As for point guards, the class is fairly jumbled. Lamelo Ball is riding the hype train to (probably) the first overall pick, while the question remains, does he deserve it? What if I told you there is another 18 year old point guard who is more efficient, a smarter passer, less turnover prone, and a better defender?. He might just be the best prospect in the class who nobody is talking about. His name is Killian Hayes.
Killian Hayes is the media’s best kept secret in the 2020 draft class. His 6’5” 215 pound frame is NBA ready. This is especially impressive at just 18 years young. Hayes averaged 13 points and 6 assists in 28 minutes per game for the German team Ratiopharm ULM. He is a very exciting prospect mostly due to his defensive prowess, a promising shooting stroke, and elite playmaking ability.
Strengths
Hayes is a playmaker through and through. With above average size he translates seamlessly into a lead guard role at the next level. He does not possess a ton of burst, but his methodical stop and start dribble hesitations enable him to get to his spots. He does a great job of finding open corner threes after getting a piece of the paint. He has a good handle that will only get stronger over time.
Hayes is a smooth lefty with a noticeable feel for the game. His polished footwork around the rim is perfectly complimented by a solid floater and touch. When at the rim, he navigates flanking defenders very well with euro-steps and gathers. Being able to stop on a dime and rise up just outside of lay-up range is where his floater comes in to play. Countless times he was able to drive full speed in either half court sets or transition, stop and gather, and finish with a soft floater over a taller defender. Having this skillset already in his bag is a very good start.
While his numbers do not show efficient shooting splits, I believe Hayes will be an exceptional shooter given time and development. In a small sample size of ten games in the Euro League, Hayes shot 45% from the field and 39% from three point range. What gives me confidence is his 91% free throw percentage. The sample size here is small, but judging by his shot mechanics I see them as pretty fitting. With the potential to be a scorer at all three levels and a natural playmaking ability, Killian Hayes is the most complete guard in the class.
Lastly, Hayes shows signs of very good/great defense. He has the potential due to his 6’8” wingspan and high motor. His on ball defense was not anything extraordinary, but he understands team defense and rotations exceptionally well. The on ball defense will be a tough adjustment just like for the 99% of rookies, but he is by no means a bad defender at 18 years old.
Weaknesses/Improvement Areas
The glaring weakness to Killian Hayes’ game is his lack of use of his right hand. I struggled to find any finishes around the rim when he used his right hand. Many times I noticed he would beat the defender moving right, but then around the elbow he would push cross back to his left to set up a finish. This tendency is eerily similar to RJ Barrett’s rookie season with the Knicks where he would go to extreme extents to avoid using his right hand around the rim. With RJ it was dribbling, passing, and shooting with the right. But for Killian, it seems to be only shooting. He dribbles and passes with his non dominant hand well and does not seem to be afraid to use it. It’s just around the rim where it is clear he doesn’t trust it.
Rebounding as a weakness for a point guard isn’t really a big deal but I guess it should be noted. He is tall and lanky but does not pursue the glass often at all. I’m not going to look much into it but it is something to keep in mind for those blinded by the triple double stat lines.
Projection/Comparison
I project Killian Hayes as a high end starter with All-Star upside. If given the keys to an offense, he will thrive with whoever is around him. He is one of those players that can play with almost anyone due to his balanced skill set across the board. The best fit for Hayes would be with the Phoenix Suns. Pairing him with Devin Booker would be an exciting backcourt and Phoenix finally gets the point guard they have been looking for. A pick and roll with DeAndre Ayton would be a lethal combination too. Also, a lefty backcourt of Hayes and RJ Barrett on the Knicks is intriguing. .
My comparison for Killian Hayes is a better defending DeAngelo Russell. Maybe it is the lefty playmaking thing that is deceiving me but I do see many similarities outside of that. The hesitations, floaters, step backs, footwork, and pick and roll reads all share striking similarities. I think there is a good chance Killian is more efficient as a rookie than Russell was in his first year. It’s a good thing the Knicks didn’t trade for Russell this offseason, because they might have the opportunity to draft his French doppelganger in the 2020 draft.
Conclusion
In a draft class where predicting the best player is going to be a crapshoot, I’m placing my bets on the most complete point guard available. I refuse to seep into the hype of Lamelo Ball and Anthony Edwards. Killian Hayes is the safest pick while having almost as much upside as those other players.